Since our firm has been sponsoring the Moore County Economic Forum for 7 or 8 years now, Moore County Chamber CEO Linda Parsons asked us to shoot an update video for the members. That update can be found in the YouTube video linked below.
While we are not economists and we do not make forecasts, we do look at the data in order to form our own opinion. (Acts 17:11 is one of our favorite scripture verses and that principle applies here too.) So, this is one of the ways we look at the data to determine what the weight of the evidence suggests.
While the yield curve (the one we prefer to look at) is still inverted and while it (so far) has a perfect record of calling recessions, at the moment, it is one of the only indicators that is suggesting a recession is approaching. We have to recognize that it is possible that it is giving us a false signal; just because it never has, does not mean that it never will.
We also have to consider that it is possible that a recession is indeed coming as this indicator suggests, but that the recession is still some ways off.
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